Donald Trump has won another election ... for the centre-left. First came Canada, where Prime Minister Mark Carney's centre-left Liberal Party secured victory, and now Australia has returned Anthony Albanese's Labor government with a commanding second-term majority, sweeping across the country from coast to coast, from Darwin to the southern tip of Tasmania.
Remarkably, both the Canadian Liberals and Australian Labor were, just a year ago, staring down the barrel of electoral defeat. In Canada, fortunes were reversed by switching leaders from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney. In Australia, Labor simply slogged it out. But the re-election of Donald Trump in the US and his revived trade war gave both Carney and Albanese the opportunity to present themselves as providers of stable leadership in an increasingly volatile global environment. Carney leveraged Canadian patriotism, presenting himself as a level-headed economist and former central banker. Albanese campaigned on core Australian values: openness to the world, national security, and the preservation of Medicare and strong labour protections.
In both countries, conservative opposition parties had led comfortably in the polls - by more than 20 points in Canada. But the Trump factor unsettled them. Unsure whether to embrace MAGA-style tactics or distance themselves from Trump's unpredictability, they floundered. Trump's controversial treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy - alongside Vice President JD Vance - shocked even conservative voters. Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, once riding high against the unpopular Trudeau, tried to brand Carney as a remote "globalist", but the Liberal campaign - with help from Mike Myers and other celebrities - turned patriotic and punchy. In Australia, Peter Dutton was also gaining ground, but faltered badly after the election was called. His campaign was hampered by news that Trump operatives were advising the Liberal-National Coalition. In a historic blow, Dutton even lost his own seat and will exit politics.
While Carney secured only a minority, Albanese achieved a significantly increased majority - an historic feat, considering Labor only narrowly defeated Scott Morrison in 2022.
Albanese's win is significant for several reasons:
- First Labor PM in Decades to Win a Second Term: Albanese becomes the first Labor Prime Minister to win a second term since Bob Hawke in 1984.
- First to Increase a Majority After First Election: He is the first Labor PM to increase his majority after winning government-John Curtin achieved a similar result in 1946, but was initially appointed PM by Parliament, not elected.
- Decimation of the LNP in Urban Areas: The Liberal-National Coalition was nearly wiped out in metropolitan Australia, now clinging mainly to rural seats. They failed to reclaim any urban strongholds from the 'Teals'-wealthy, climate-focused independents funded by Simon Holmes à Court.
- Collapse of the Greens: The Greens saw a sharp decline after framing the election around Gaza rather than environmental policy. Their stance alienated Jewish voters in Sydney and Melbourne. Party leader Adam Bandt may even lose his long-held seat of Melbourne to Labor.
- A Surge in Female, Community-Driven Candidates: Labor had success with grassroots female candidates, particularly in Queensland, resonating strongly with younger voters.
What's Next for the Albanese Government?
There's reason for optimism:
- Trade Policy Clarity: The end of Trump's and Xi Jinping's failed tariff wars frees Labor to focus on innovation and skills, without being boxed in by populist demands.
- Global Partnerships: Australia can deepen ties with ASEAN, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the EU-plus its close allies in the UK, New Zealand, Canada, and the Pacific.
- Productivity with a Human Touch: Re-elected Treasurer Dr Jim "Sunny Jim" Chalmers emphasised improving productivity through investment in skills, exports, and innovation-rejecting the harsh rhetoric of past reformers. Dutton's attacks on working from home backfired, with flexible work now seen as potentially boosting both productivity and quality of life.
- Independence from Greens: Labor can now legislate on housing, climate innovation, and immigration without needing Green support, enabling more pragmatic policymaking.
As for the LNP, an internal review is already underway. With Dutton out, leadership contenders include Andrew Hastie, Angus Taylor, Dan Tehan, Jane Hume, and Sussan Ley. But they'll need to move quickly - Australia votes again in 2028.
In the meantime, Anthony Albanese joins the pantheon of Labor greats - Curtin, Chifley, Whitlam, Hawke, Keating. He now has a rare opportunity to drive sustained economic prosperity and fairness in Australia.
And perhaps he owes a thank-you card to the White House - right next to Mark Carney's.
(Professor Tim Harcourt is Chief Economist at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) and host of The Airport Economist channel: https://tickernews.co/shows/airporteconomist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
