Following the brutal terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India launched Operation Sindoor last week, which culminated in a ceasefire on Saturday. However, Pakistan did not refrain from its mischief, and even on Saturday evening, sporadic attacks continued, which were appropriately responded to by India. Broadly speaking, India's three-day military operation succeeded in achieving its objectives. Earlier too, India had taken several steps on the civilian front to cripple Pakistan. The pressure created by these efforts led Pakistan to plead with global powers, and with the intervention of the US and some Gulf nations, progress was made toward a ceasefire on Saturday.
Who Planned The Pahalgam Attack?
Through Operation Sindoor, India thwarted the intentions of Pakistan's jihadist General, Asim Munir. There is good reason to believe that the Pahalgam terror attack was entirely Munir's brainchild. Just days before the attack, he had delivered a venomous speech, talking about Hindu-Muslim division, the two-nation theory, and calling Kashmir the "jugular vein" of Pakistan. The growing peace and prosperity of the Kashmir Valley, gradually joining the mainstream, was becoming intolerable to Munir and the Pakistani army.
Given how the Modi government had responded to the Uri and Pulwama attacks, it was considered certain that Pakistan would have to pay a heavy price for Pahalgam. In fact, Pakistan itself was uncertain, with speculations rife about when and how India would retaliate. Under Operation Sindoor, India destroyed nine terrorist camps deep inside Pakistan, putting an end to all speculation. The heavy blow dealt to Pakistan through the destruction of terrorists and their infrastructure triggered a response from India that Pakistan will not forget. This will further shake the already struggling Pakistani army, weaken Munir's position, and potentially crush his dreams of service extension.
India's Measured Approach
After the horrific terrorist attack on its innocent civilians, India also altered its strategy. The weak state of Pakistan's civilian government is no secret, nor is the fact that the real reins of power lie with the army. With this in mind, India completely revised its Pakistan strategy. Steps included suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, imposing visa bans, halting trade, and restricting port access. These moves signalled clearly that Pakistan would be answered in the only language it understands. Precise military operations completed the job. First, terrorist camps and infrastructure were destroyed. In retaliation, Indian forces not only thwarted Pakistani drone and missile attacks but also inflicted such damage on Pakistan's military installations that the army found it hard to save face.
In this series of actions, Indian strikes near Pakistani military headquarters and airbases proved that India can accurately strike deep within Pakistan. India's response demonstrates that it will not hesitate to take any risk necessary to crush any operation against it. Previously, New Delhi had held back from strong responses to Pakistan on the grounds that India was a responsible nation and it was best to avoid entanglements. Under the Modi government, this approach has changed fundamentally.
Why A Ceasefire Was Important
India has consistently maintained that it does not seek war, and even in its retaliatory actions, it targeted only terrorist infrastructure. Initially, military installations were kept off-limits. But due to Pakistan's continued provocations, India had to revise its approach. During the conflict, Pakistan used its civilians as human shields, hoping to exploit Indian retaliation for its own propaganda. Still, India displayed utmost restraint. In contrast, Pakistan cowardly targeted civilians and their property from Samba to Jammu. India's comprehensive pressure eventually forced Pakistan to appeal to major powers for a ceasefire.
Despite India's upper hand, some people within the country have expressed discontent over agreeing to a ceasefire, arguing that Pakistan should not have been spared this time. On the surface, such frustration is understandable, but a deeper analysis shows that such decisions are made by considering all broader aspects. India achieved its intended goals through the operation - it inflicted significant damage on Pakistan and sent a strong message that any future terror attack would be treated as an act of war. Extending this conflict any further would not serve India's interests. India's growing stature in the world and its respected voice on global platforms are largely due to its rising economic power. With that strength, India has managed to push Pakistan to the margins of international relevance. Pakistan's goal is to drag India into a confrontation so that the world starts viewing them as equals again. But India today has far greater goals - economic development and self-reliance. An endless military confrontation would only distract from these priorities.
The US-China Dynamic
This India-Pakistan conflict can also be analysed through the lens of the US-China power balance. The American efforts toward the ceasefire should be viewed in the context that the US sees India not only as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific but also as a vital trade partner. Therefore, the US would not want India to waste its energy, resources, and time on Pakistan. Meanwhile, China appeared to support Pakistan. Not only did Pakistan use Chinese weapons, but China also backed it through public statements.
Finally, those who are comparing this conflict to the 1971 war or to Russian or Israeli responses should understand that the South Asian context of today is vastly different.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President, Observers Research Foundation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
